Saturday 14 August 2010

Global developments


Over the period 1950-1973, the volume of world trade (in goods and services) increased at an annual rate of nearly 8%, while world GDP rose annually by 5% in volume. In the decade following the abandonment of the Breton Woods fixed exchange rate regime and the first oil price shock, the rate of expansion of both world trade and world GDP slowed down substantially.
Since 1983, the pace of world trade has accelerated again, reaching an average annual rate of 5.7%. This well outpaces the expansion of world GDP, which has risen at an average of only 3.4% per year. However, the pace of world trade has been slower than the pace of FDI, which has risen at 14% per year since 1985.In 1996, world merchandise exports accounted for $5.1 trillion and commercial services exports $1.2 trillion. The respective figures for imports were $5.2 trillion (merchandise) and $1.2 trillion (services). (World Trade Organization (WTO) Secretariat, Report on Trade Developments 1997) In 1996, global trade (based on exports) rose 3.3% from the previous year. This represented a major slowdown compared with the 20.4% rise seen in 1995. (Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO), White Paper on International Trade 1997)
Developed and developing countries
With regard to the role of individual regions in the growth of global trade, there was a remarkable drop in the contributions of the EU and East Asia to export growth, compared to the previous year. The EU's contribution to trade growth was down from 8.9% to 0.9%, and East Asia's fell from 3.7% to 0.7%. Furthermore, Japan's contribution to worldwide export growth was negative in 1996. Even its contribution to import growth came in at a low 0.3%. Latin America, meanwhile, had little effect on overall trade growth since the region originally represented only a minor part of global trade.
One of the reasons for the sluggish growth in global trade as compared with the growth rate of the global economy was a shift in the countries driving economic growth, both in industrialized and developing countries. Specifically, Japan became the major driving force among the industrialized countries in 1996, rather than the EU (with the growth rate of the EU falling from 2.5% to 1.6%, and that of Japan rising from 1.4% to 3.6%). Among developing countries, the growth rate in Asia slowed a bit, but this was made up for by faster growth in Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa. However, the trade of Japan and these other countries and regions did not grow commensurately. (JETRO, White Paper on International Trade 1997)

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